Analysis of Fiscal Policy and Poverty Reduction in Tunisia: A Study Based on Mixed Econometric Models

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between economic policy and social development in Tunisia, with a specific focus on the role of fiscal policy in reducing poverty and inequalitie through social spending. The objective is to assess whether these expenditures contribute to achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth. To this end, an econometric approach based on an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was adopted. The results highlight a differentiated impact of social expenditures: health investments have an immediate and lasting effect on growth and social well-being, while education spending exhibits a paradoxical effect, requiring structural reforms to maximize its efficiency. These findings emphasize the importance of an optimized fiscal policy that integrates human capital development and improved governance of productive investments to ensure sustained and equitable growth.