Economic Complexity and Power Rivalry: A Geopolitical Reading of U.S. –China Relations

Abstract

This article analyzes the strategic rivalry between the United States and China through the analytical framework of economic complexity. Using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) over the period 1995–2022, it highlights a gradual convergence in productive capabilities between the two powers. The empirical results show that China’s rise in complexity is strongly correlated with its trajectory of economic power, while the U.S. advantage remains high but relatively stable. This structural convergence contributes to the intensification of geo-economic rivalry, particularly in high value-added technological sectors.