Analysis of the effects of a fourfold shock on economic growth in the WAEMU zone

Abstract

This study examines the effects of security, health, socio-political, and external economic shocks on the economic growth of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) countries from 2000 to 2022. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), it analyzes data from reliable sources such as the World Bank, IMF, WHO, and BCEAO. The results show that security shocks, such as terrorism, have an immediate and persistent impact on economic growth. Health crises, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a marked decline in GDP with a slow recovery. Socio-political shocks, including coups d'état hinder growth. External shocks, such as fluctuations in commodity and energy prices, negatively affect growth. To mitigate these negative impacts, it is crucial to strengthen security and resilience measures, diversify economies to reduce dependence on raw materials, invest in infrastructure and human capital, and promote good governance and political stability. Economic support policies are essential to mitigate the effects of crises and support resilient and inclusive economic growth.