Digital Transformation, Morocco 2030 Strategy and Economic Growth: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Résumé

This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of digital transformation on economic growth in Morocco within the framework of the Morocco Digital 2030 Strategy. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using data covering the period 1965–2024. Real GDP per capita is used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables include the Digital Transformation Index, investment in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), internet penetration, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and the inflation rate. Prior to estimation, the time-series properties of the variables are examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The existence of a long-run relationship among the variables is then verified using the Pesaran Bounds cointegration test. The empirical findings indicate that the Digital Transformation Index has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in the short run. However, its long-run effect, although positive, is not statistically significant, whereas ICT investment emerges as a significant determinant of long-run economic growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM) reveals a rapid adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium following short-run shocks, confirming the stability of the estimated model. Diagnostic tests, including serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, normality, and parameter stability (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ), confirm the robustness of the empirical findings. This study contributes to the digital economy literature by developing a multidimensional Digital Transformation Index that integrates the key dimensions of digital development, applying it to the Moroccan context within the framework of the Morocco Digital 2030 Strategy, and employing an ARDL-ECM approach to jointly examine the short-run and long-run dynamics between digital transformation and economic growth. The findings provide valuable policy insights for accelerating Morocco's digital transition and promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth.