Electricity Generation and Energy Poverty in the CEMAC Zone: The Role of Public Debt

Abstract

This study aims to examine the role of public debt in the relationship between electricity generation and access to electricity within the CEMAC zone, against a backdrop where the tripling of regional electricity generation since 2000 has translated into only limited progress in public access. The methodology relies on a panel data econometric analysis covering the six CEMAC countries over the 2000–2024 period. A fixed-effects model incorporating an interaction term and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors was employed; the findings reveal that public debt exerts a significant amplifying effect on the relationship between electricity generation and access: the marginal effect of electricity generation on access increases with the level of public debt—a result that remains robust across various tested truncation orders. Economic policy implications focus on strategically directing public debt toward financing distribution infrastructure that complements generation capacity, strengthening the profitability assessment of debt-financed projects, and enhancing the regulatory framework's attractiveness to private investors in the electricity sector.