Digital Transformation and Economic Growth in Morocco: Identifying a Structural Shock Using a SVAR Model

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of a structural shock of digital transformation on economic growth in Morocco for the period 2002-2023. A macroeconomic view is required to evaluate the extent to which digitalization is an autonomous driver of growth in addition to traditional drivers such as inflation, investment and trade openness. Methodologically, the study employs a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model estimated on annual data. Digital transformation is measured through a composite index built from three normalized indicators drawn from the World Development Indicators: Internet usage, fixed-line telephony, and fixed broadband subscriptions. Following an assessment of the stationarity properties of the series, the index enters the system in first differences. Diagnostic testing supports a first-order specification, and structural shocks are identified through an AB-type factorization with a lower triangular matrix A and a diagonal matrix B, yielding a just-identified model. The results do not support the hypothesis that digital transformation constitutes a measurable driver of Moroccan growth over the period. The structural impulse response of GDP growth to a digital transformation shock is statistically indistinguishable from zero at every horizon considered, with 95 per cent confidence bands containing zero throughout; the point estimates are negative in the first year following the shock before oscillating around zero. The structural forecast error variance decomposition attributes approximately three per cent of the variance of growth to the digital shock. Symmetrically, no individual response linking digital transformation to the other variables of the system attains statistical significance, in either direction. These results indicate that the diffusion of the digital in Morocco over the period 2002–2023 has been mainly in parallel with the real economy, and not in interaction with it. This is consistent with the perspective that digital dividends are not automatic and evenly distributed and that measurable macroeconomic returns depend on absorptive capacity in terms of infrastructure quality, human capital, and institutional conditions that may not yet be in place. The results suggest the need for digital policies for productive integration, not only connectivity.