Evaluating the Economic Performance of a Territory in Transition: An Integrated Approach Applied to the Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra Region

Abstract

The region of Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra, located at the intersection of Saharan and Atlantic dynamics, is undergoing an economic transition marked by strong reliance on public expenditure and a national ambition for territorial diversification. Despite substantial development efforts, its economic performance remains largely dependent on state-driven investment, raising concerns about its ability to initiate an autonomous, inclusive and sustainable growth trajectory. This study assesses the region’s economic performance through an integrated framework combining a composite Regional Economic Performance Index (ICPER), structured around five key dimensions, and with a Shift-Share analysis applied to strategic sectors. The findings reveal a significant improvement in overall performance, with the composite index rising from 0.33 in 2013 to 0.53 in 2023. The Shift-Share results highlight fisheries, phosphates and renewable energies as the main endogenous growth drivers, while structural vulnerabilities persist in employment, informality and productive diversification. These results underscore the need to strengthen local productive capacities and consolidate endogenous engines of growth to support the region’s ongoing economic transition.