Consequences of Oil Price Fluctuations: An Integrated Analysis of Fiscal, Monetary, and Structural Instruments in Morocco (1995–2025)

Abstract

Morocco's economy, dependent on hydrocarbon imports, remains structurally exposed to fluctuations in international oil prices. This article examines the extent to which Morocco's fiscal, monetary, and structural instruments enable it to manage this risk over the period 1995–2025. Drawing on documentary research combined with a SWOT analysis applied according to four criteria (budgetary cost, reversibility, equity, and implementation lag), the study traces the evolution of oil pricing policy, examines the fiscal and monetary responses to the post–2020 shocks, and then assesses the energy transition as a structural response. The results show a shift from an administered regime toward more targeted and reversible instruments of limited scope. At the same time, the energy transition, the only lever acting on the structural cause of the risk, remains constrained by financing, governance, and skills-related constraints. Unlike existing studies, which address price transmission, the energy transition, or the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in isolation, this article offers an integrated approach that articulates these three dimensions of economic policy. Its contribution lies in applying a SWOT grid, enabling a comparison of mobilized instruments on a common basis and offering a framework transposable to other net oil-importing economies.